Fred Matua
G, USC · 2006 NFL Draft, Round 7, pick #217 (DET)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Never played a regular-season NFL game.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #110 overall (#5 at his position), but he lasted until pick #217: teams let him slide 107 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
USC: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.00 40-yard dash at 306 lbs: faster than 89% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
G (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 0 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 0 |
| Last NFL season | Never played |
The 2006 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2006 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 306 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.00 s |
| Bench press | 28 reps |
| Vertical | 24.5" |
| Broad jump | 93" |
| 3-cone | 7.87 s |
| Shuttle | 4.76 s |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #110 overall (#5 G) |
Picked around him 2006 redraft
| 214 | Chris Morris | redraft #151 |
| 215 | Cortland Finnegan | redraft #27 |
| 216 | Terrance Pennington | redraft #164 |
| 218 | Todd Watkins | redraft #197 |
| 219 | Ryan LaCasse | redraft #200 |
| 220 | Titus Adams | redraft #223 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.