Tim Tebow
QB, Florida · 2010 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #25 (DEN)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, position. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #65 (#4 at his position); he went #25, 40 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Florida: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.71 40-yard dash at 236 lbs: faster than 70% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 35 of ~48 possible regular-season games from 2010 through 2012 (~73%). Last NFL season: 2012.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 35 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 12 |
| Passing | 173/361, 2,422 yds, 17 TD, 9 INT |
| Rushing | 197 att, 989 yds, 12 TD |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2012 |
The 2010 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2010 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 236 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.71 s |
| Vertical | 38.5" |
| Broad jump | 115" |
| 3-cone | 6.66 s |
| Shuttle | 4.17 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.6" / 10.1" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #65 overall (#4 QB) |
Picked around him 2010 redraft
| 22 | Demaryius Thomas | redraft #13 |
| 23 | Bryan Bulaga | redraft #25 |
| 24 | Dez Bryant | redraft #21 |
| 26 | Dan Williams | redraft #60 |
| 27 | Devin McCourty | redraft #9 |
| 28 | Jared Odrick | redraft #61 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.