Demaryius Thomas
WR, Georgia Tech · 2010 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #22 (DEN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 143 of ~160 possible regular-season games from 2010 through 2019 (~89%). Last NFL season: 2019.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #23 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#22). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Georgia Tech: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.52 40-yard dash at 224 lbs: faster than 29% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 143 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 8 |
| Pro Bowls | 5 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 69 |
| Passing | undefined/1, 0 yds, undefined TD, undefined INT |
| Rushing | 3 att, 6 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 724 rec, 9,763 yds, 63 TD |
| Defense | 2 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2019 |
The 2010 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2010 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 224 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.52 s |
| Arm / hand | 33" / 10.5" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #23 overall (#2 WR) |
Picked around him 2010 redraft
| 19 | Sean Weatherspoon | redraft #73 |
| 20 | Kareem Jackson | redraft #29 |
| 21 | Jermaine Gresham | redraft #64 |
| 23 | Bryan Bulaga | redraft #25 |
| 24 | Dez Bryant | redraft #21 |
| 25 | Tim Tebow | redraft #110 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.