Telvin Smith
LB, Florida St. · 2014 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #144 (JAX)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, position, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #94 overall (#8 at his position), but he lasted until pick #144: teams let him slide 50 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
LB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 76 of ~80 possible regular-season games from 2014 through 2018 (~95%). Last NFL season: 2018.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Florida St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.52 40-yard dash at 218 lbs: faster than 88% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 76 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 5 |
| Pro Bowls | 1 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 42 |
| Defense | 446 tackles, 7.5 sacks, 9 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2018 |
The 2014 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2014 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 218 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.52 s |
| Vertical | 31.5" |
| Broad jump | 119" |
| Arm / hand | 32.4" / 10.2" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #94 overall (#8 LB) |
Picked around him 2014 redraft
| 141 | Taylor Hart | redraft #194 |
| 142 | Ryan Grant | redraft #115 |
| 143 | Kadeem Edwards | redraft #230 |
| 145 | David Yankey | redraft #216 |
| 146 | Devin Street | redraft #190 |
| 147 | Ricardo Allen | redraft #65 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.