Tarvaris Jackson
QB, Alabama St. · 2006 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #64 (MIN)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, position, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #127 (#8 at his position); he went #64, 63 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 59 of ~160 possible regular-season games from 2006 through 2015 (~37%). Last NFL season: 2015.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Alabama St.: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.69 40-yard dash at 226 lbs: faster than 74% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 59 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 2 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 22 |
| Passing | 640/1073, 7,263 yds, 39 TD, 35 INT |
| Rushing | 171 att, 636 yds, 6 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2015 |
The 2006 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2006 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 226 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.69 s |
| Bench press | 22 reps |
| Vertical | 31.5" |
| Broad jump | 107" |
| 3-cone | 7.4 s |
| Shuttle | 4.38 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #127 overall (#8 QB) |
Picked around him 2006 redraft
| 61 | Tony Scheffler | redraft #83 |
| 62 | Tim Jennings | redraft #46 |
| 63 | Darryl Tapp | redraft #72 |
| 65 | Charles Spencer | redraft #196 |
| 66 | Eric Winston | redraft #28 |
| 67 | Abdul Hodge | redraft #180 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.