Stephen Weatherly
OLB, Vanderbilt · 2016 NFL Draft, Round 7, pick #227 (MIN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, age, position. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #190 overall (#15 at his position), but he lasted until pick #227: teams let him slide 37 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
OLB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Vanderbilt: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.61 40-yard dash at 267 lbs: faster than 66% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 73 of ~97 possible regular-season games from 2016 through 2021 (~75%). Last NFL season: 2021.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 73 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 12 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 12.0 |
| Defense | 66 tackles, 8.5 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2021 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2016 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2016 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 267 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.61 s |
| Bench press | 23 reps |
| Vertical | 31" |
| Broad jump | 117" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #190 overall (#15 OLB) |
Picked around him 2016 redraft
| 224 | Donavon Clark | redraft #245 |
| 225 | Devin Lucien | redraft #246 |
| 226 | Jonathan Woodard | redraft #215 |
| 228 | Riley Dixon | redraft #91 |
| 229 | Demarcus Ayers | redraft #229 |
| 230 | Daniel Braverman | redraft #225 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.