Riley Dixon
P, Syracuse · 2016 NFL Draft, Round 7, pick #228 (DEN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
P (ST group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 68% of the time (97 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 164 of ~165 possible regular-season games from 2016 through 2025 (~99%). Plus 7 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #329 (#2 at his position); he went #228, 101 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Syracuse: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.04 40-yard dash at 221 lbs: faster than 16% of STs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 171 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 3 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 18 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 0.1 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 18.1 |
| Passing | 4/6, 37 yds, undefined TD, undefined INT |
| Rushing | 1 att, 14 yds, undefined TD |
| Defense | 16 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2016 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2016 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position ST | 68.0% n=97 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 221 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.04 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.63" / 9.25" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #329 overall (#2 P) |
Picked around him 2016 redraft
| 225 | Devin Lucien | redraft #246 |
| 226 | Jonathan Woodard | redraft #215 |
| 227 | Stephen Weatherly | redraft #114 |
| 229 | Demarcus Ayers | redraft #229 |
| 230 | Daniel Braverman | redraft #225 |
| 231 | Thomas Duarte | redraft #235 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.