Stephen Nicholas
LB, South Florida · 2007 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #109 (ATL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
LB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 101 of ~112 possible regular-season games from 2007 through 2013 (~90%). Last NFL season: 2013.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #79 (#6 at his position), close to where he went (#109). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
South Florida: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.64 40-yard dash at 232 lbs: faster than 57% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 101 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 4 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 27 |
| Defense | 284 tackles, 8 sacks, 2 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2013 |
The 2007 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2007 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 232 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.64 s |
| Bench press | 29 reps |
| Vertical | 33.5" |
| Broad jump | 110" |
| 3-cone | 7.29 s |
| Shuttle | 4.45 s |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #79 overall (#6 LB) |
Picked around him 2007 redraft
| 106 | Tanard Jackson | redraft #59 |
| 107 | Antonio Pittman | redraft #164 |
| 108 | Paul Soliai | redraft #34 |
| 110 | John Bowie | redraft #216 |
| 111 | Dwayne Wright | redraft #193 |
| 112 | Daniel Sepulveda | redraft #130 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.