Dwayne Wright
RB, Fresno St. · 2007 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #111 (BUF)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: age. Details below.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #136 (#12 at his position), close to where he went (#111).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Fresno St.: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.66 40-yard dash at 228 lbs: faster than 13% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 15 of ~16 possible regular-season games from 2007 through 2007 (~94%). Last NFL season: 2007.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 15 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 1 |
| Rushing | 29 att, 94 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 3 rec, 17 yds, undefined TD |
| Defense | 3 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2007 |
The 2007 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2007 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 11", 228 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.66 s |
| Bench press | 14 reps |
| Vertical | 34" |
| Broad jump | 115" |
| 3-cone | 7.23 s |
| Shuttle | 4.43 s |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #136 overall (#12 RB) |
Picked around him 2007 redraft
| 108 | Paul Soliai | redraft #34 |
| 109 | Stephen Nicholas | redraft #55 |
| 110 | John Bowie | redraft #216 |
| 112 | Daniel Sepulveda | redraft #130 |
| 113 | Brian Smith | redraft #232 |
| 114 | Marvin White | redraft #127 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.