Spencer Rattler
QB, South Carolina · 2024 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #150 (NOR)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings. Details below.
The 2024 class is only 2 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #98 overall (#7 at his position), but he lasted until pick #150: teams let him slide 52 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
South Carolina: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.95 40-yard dash at 211 lbs: faster than 16% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 16 of ~34 possible regular-season games from 2024 through 2025 (~47%). Plus 1 game so far in 2026.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 17 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 6 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 6.0 |
| Passing | 304/485, 2,903 yds, 12 TD, 10 INT |
| Rushing | 49 att, 313 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 1 rec, 0 yds, undefined TD |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2024 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2024 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 211 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.95 s |
| Vertical | 32" |
| Broad jump | 108" |
| 3-cone | 7.21 s |
| Shuttle | 4.37 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #98 overall (#7 QB) |
Picked around him 2024 redraft
| 147 | Audric Estime | redraft #125 |
| 148 | Tommy Eichenberg | redraft #144 |
| 149 | Josh Newton | redraft #138 |
| 151 | Jaylon Carlies | redraft #119 |
| 152 | Ainias Smith | redraft #196 |
| 153 | Deantre Prince | redraft #193 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.