Jaylon Carlies
DB, Missouri · 2024 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #151 (IND)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
The 2024 class is only 2 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #203 (#15 at his position); he went #151, 52 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Missouri: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.50 40-yard dash at 227 lbs: faster than 42% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 12 of ~34 possible regular-season games from 2024 through 2025 (~35%). Plus 5 games so far in 2026.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 17 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 3 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 1.3 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 4.3 |
| Defense | 31 tackles, 1 sacks, 1 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2024 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2024 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 227 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.50 s |
| Bench press | 20 reps |
| Vertical | 32.5" |
| Broad jump | 125" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #203 overall (#15 DB) |
Picked around him 2024 redraft
| 148 | Tommy Eichenberg | redraft #144 |
| 149 | Josh Newton | redraft #138 |
| 150 | Spencer Rattler | redraft #100 |
| 152 | Ainias Smith | redraft #196 |
| 153 | Deantre Prince | redraft #193 |
| 154 | Brennan Jackson | redraft #194 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.