Shi Smith
WR, South Carolina · 2021 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #204 (CAR)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, age. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #89 overall (#15 at his position), but he lasted until pick #204: teams let him slide 115 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
South Carolina: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Combine
No NFL Combine invite on record (nflverse combine data), so teams had less verified testing on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 49% of the time (905 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 23 of ~34 possible regular-season games from 2021 through 2022 (~68%). Last NFL season: 2022.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 23 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 4 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 4.0 |
| Rushing | 1 att, -3 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 28 rec, 400 yds, 2 TD |
| Defense | 4 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2022 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2021 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2021 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Combine No Combine invite | 49.0% n=905 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 10", 186 lbs |
| Arm / hand | 31.88" / 9.5" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #89 overall (#15 WR) |
Picked around him 2021 redraft
| 201 | Rodarius Williams | redraft #208 |
| 202 | Chris Evans | redraft #174 |
| 203 | Marquez Stevenson | redraft #228 |
| 205 | Racey McMath | redraft #217 |
| 206 | Landon Young | redraft #116 |
| 207 | Jonathan Marshall | redraft #231 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.