Marquez Stevenson
WR, Houston · 2021 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #203 (BUF)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 5 of ~17 possible regular-season games from 2021 through 2021 (~29%). Last NFL season: 2021.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #143 overall (#24 at his position), but he lasted until pick #203: teams let him slide 60 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Houston: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.48 40-yard dash at 180 lbs: faster than 44% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 5 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 0 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 0.0 |
| Last NFL season | 2021 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2021 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2021 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 10", 180 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.48 s |
| Vertical | 33" |
| Broad jump | 122" |
| 3-cone | 6.76 s |
| Shuttle | 4.14 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.5" / 8.63" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #143 overall (#24 WR) |
Picked around him 2021 redraft
| 200 | Brandin Echols | redraft #104 |
| 201 | Rodarius Williams | redraft #208 |
| 202 | Chris Evans | redraft #174 |
| 204 | Shi Smith | redraft #158 |
| 205 | Racey McMath | redraft #217 |
| 206 | Landon Young | redraft #116 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.