Shawn Nelson
TE, Southern Miss · 2009 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #121 (BUF)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
TE (TE group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 37.1% of the time (321 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 17 of ~32 possible regular-season games from 2009 through 2010 (~53%). Last NFL season: 2010.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #50 overall (#3 at his position), but he lasted until pick #121: teams let him slide 71 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Southern Miss: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.52 40-yard dash at 240 lbs: faster than 94% of TEs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 17 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 1 |
| Receiving | 20 rec, 181 yds, 1 TD |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2010 |
The 2009 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2009 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position TE | 37.1% n=321 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 240 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.52 s |
| Bench press | 19 reps |
| Vertical | 33" |
| Broad jump | 115" |
| 3-cone | 6.96 s |
| Shuttle | 4.46 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #50 overall (#3 TE) |
Picked around him 2009 redraft
| 118 | Stanley Arnoux | redraft #188 |
| 119 | D.J. Moore | redraft #131 |
| 120 | Brandon Williams | redraft #215 |
| 122 | Anthony Hill | redraft #209 |
| 123 | Rich Ohrnberger | redraft #122 |
| 124 | Louis Murphy | redraft #84 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.