Seth Williams
WR, Auburn · 2021 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #219 (DEN)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 2 of ~17 possible regular-season games from 2021 through 2021 (~12%). Last NFL season: 2021.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #165 overall (#27 at his position), but he lasted until pick #219: teams let him slide 54 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Auburn: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.49 40-yard dash at 211 lbs: faster than 41% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 2 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 0 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 0.0 |
| Receiving | 1 rec, 34 yds, undefined TD |
| Last NFL season | 2021 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2021 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2021 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 211 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.49 s |
| Bench press | 12 reps |
| Vertical | 37" |
| Broad jump | 124" |
| 3-cone | 7.2 s |
| Shuttle | 4.43 s |
| Arm / hand | 33.5" / 9.88" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #165 overall (#27 WR) |
Picked around him 2021 redraft
| 216 | Quincy Roche | redraft #190 |
| 217 | Khalil Herbert | redraft #93 |
| 218 | Sam Ehlinger | redraft #184 |
| 220 | Isaiah McDuffie | redraft #62 |
| 221 | Dazz Newsome | redraft #238 |
| 222 | Thomas Fletcher | redraft #254 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.