Sam Ehlinger
QB, Texas · 2021 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #218 (IND)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #247 (#12 at his position), close to where he went (#218).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Texas: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.84 40-yard dash at 220 lbs: faster than 38% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 8 of ~51 possible regular-season games from 2021 through 2023 (~16%). Last NFL season: 2023.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 8 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 2 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 2.0 |
| Passing | 64/101, 573 yds, 3 TD, 3 INT |
| Rushing | 20 att, 96 yds, undefined TD |
| Last NFL season | 2023 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2021 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2021 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 220 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.84 s |
| Vertical | 36.5" |
| Broad jump | 114" |
| 3-cone | 7.15 s |
| Shuttle | 4.44 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.5" / 9.63" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #247 overall (#12 QB) |
Picked around him 2021 redraft
| 215 | Brady Breeze | redraft #219 |
| 216 | Quincy Roche | redraft #190 |
| 217 | Khalil Herbert | redraft #93 |
| 219 | Seth Williams | redraft #241 |
| 220 | Isaiah McDuffie | redraft #62 |
| 221 | Dazz Newsome | redraft #238 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.