Sean Mannion
QB, Oregon St. · 2015 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #89 (STL)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 14 of ~113 possible regular-season games from 2015 through 2021 (~12%). Last NFL season: 2021.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #108 (#4 at his position), close to where he went (#89).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Oregon St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.14 40-yard dash at 229 lbs: faster than 3% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 14 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 2 |
| Passing | 67/110, 573 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT |
| Rushing | 25 att, -3 yds, undefined TD |
| Last NFL season | 2021 |
The 2015 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2015 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 6", 229 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.14 s |
| Vertical | 31" |
| Broad jump | 105" |
| 3-cone | 7.29 s |
| Shuttle | 4.39 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #108 overall (#4 QB) |
Picked around him 2015 redraft
| 86 | David Johnson | redraft #34 |
| 87 | Sammie Coates | redraft #151 |
| 88 | Danielle Hunter | redraft #2 |
| 90 | Carl Davis | redraft #104 |
| 91 | Chaz Green | redraft #131 |
| 92 | Jeff Heuerman | redraft #143 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.