Carl Davis
DT, Iowa · 2015 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #90 (BAL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #57 overall (#7 at his position), but he lasted until pick #90: teams let him slide 33 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Iowa: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.07 40-yard dash at 320 lbs: faster than 24% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DT (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 78 of ~164 possible regular-season games from 2015 through 2024 (~48%). Last NFL season: 2024.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 78 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 13 |
| Defense | 36 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2024 |
The 2015 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2015 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 320 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.07 s |
| Vertical | 33" |
| Broad jump | 103" |
| 3-cone | 7.91 s |
| Shuttle | 4.47 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #57 overall (#7 DT) |
Picked around him 2015 redraft
| 87 | Sammie Coates | redraft #151 |
| 88 | Danielle Hunter | redraft #2 |
| 89 | Sean Mannion | redraft #184 |
| 91 | Chaz Green | redraft #131 |
| 92 | Jeff Heuerman | redraft #143 |
| 93 | Henry Anderson | redraft #75 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.