Samson Satele
C, Hawaii · 2007 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #60 (MIA)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, position, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
C (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 118 of ~128 possible regular-season games from 2007 through 2014 (~92%). Last NFL season: 2014.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #75 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#60). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Hawaii: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.24 40-yard dash at 300 lbs: faster than 43% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 118 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 8 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 48 |
| Rushing | 1 att, 0 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 1 rec, -3 yds, undefined TD |
| Last NFL season | 2014 |
The 2007 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2007 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 300 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.24 s |
| Bench press | 25 reps |
| Vertical | 33" |
| Broad jump | 101" |
| 3-cone | 7.47 s |
| Shuttle | 4.29 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #75 overall (#2 C) |
Picked around him 2007 redraft
| 57 | Victor Abiamiri | redraft #143 |
| 58 | Ikaika Alama-Francis | redraft #178 |
| 59 | Ryan Kalil | redraft #11 |
| 61 | Gerald Alexander | redraft #109 |
| 62 | Dan Bazuin | redraft #228 |
| 63 | Brandon Jackson | redraft #82 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.