Gerald Alexander
DB, Boise St. · 2007 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #61 (DET)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #142 (#10 at his position); he went #61, 81 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 44 of ~80 possible regular-season games from 2007 through 2011 (~55%). Last NFL season: 2011.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Boise St.: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.51 40-yard dash at 210 lbs: faster than 38% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 44 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 2 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 11 |
| Defense | 121 tackles, 2 sacks, 4 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2011 |
The 2007 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2007 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 210 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.51 s |
| Bench press | 15 reps |
| Vertical | 41" |
| Broad jump | 124" |
| 3-cone | 7.24 s |
| Shuttle | 4.21 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #142 overall (#10 DB) |
Picked around him 2007 redraft
| 58 | Ikaika Alama-Francis | redraft #178 |
| 59 | Ryan Kalil | redraft #11 |
| 60 | Samson Satele | redraft #27 |
| 62 | Dan Bazuin | redraft #228 |
| 63 | Brandon Jackson | redraft #82 |
| 64 | Sabby Piscitelli | redraft #90 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.