Sam Jones
G, Arizona St. · 2018 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #183 (DEN)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 5 of ~16 possible regular-season games from 2018 through 2018 (~31%). Last NFL season: 2018.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #180 (#10 at his position), close to where he went (#183).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Arizona St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.32 40-yard dash at 305 lbs: faster than 24% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
G (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 5 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 0 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 0.0 |
| Last NFL season | 2018 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2018 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2018 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 305 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.32 s |
| Bench press | 28 reps |
| Vertical | 27" |
| Broad jump | 101" |
| 3-cone | 7.92 s |
| Shuttle | 4.86 s |
| Arm / hand | 31" / 9.5" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #180 overall (#10 G) |
Picked around him 2018 redraft
| 180 | Folorunso Fatukasi | redraft #71 |
| 181 | Kylie Fitts | redraft #219 |
| 182 | Christian Campbell | redraft #244 |
| 184 | Marcell Harris | redraft #115 |
| 185 | Deon Cain | redraft #221 |
| 186 | Jacob Martin | redraft #97 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.