Deon Cain
WR, Clemson · 2018 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #185 (IND)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 15 of ~48 possible regular-season games from 2018 through 2020 (~31%). Last NFL season: 2020.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #107 overall (#12 at his position), but he lasted until pick #185: teams let him slide 78 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Clemson: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.43 40-yard dash at 202 lbs: faster than 64% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 15 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 1 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 1.0 |
| Receiving | 9 rec, 124 yds, undefined TD |
| Last NFL season | 2020 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2018 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2018 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 202 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.43 s |
| Bench press | 11 reps |
| Vertical | 33.5" |
| Broad jump | 115" |
| 3-cone | 6.71 s |
| Shuttle | 4.37 s |
| Arm / hand | 33" / 8.75" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #107 overall (#12 WR) |
Picked around him 2018 redraft
| 182 | Christian Campbell | redraft #244 |
| 183 | Sam Jones | redraft #233 |
| 184 | Marcell Harris | redraft #115 |
| 186 | Jacob Martin | redraft #97 |
| 187 | Ray-Ray McCloud | redraft #117 |
| 188 | Simeon Thomas | redraft #222 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.