Ryan Moats
RB, Louisiana Tech · 2005 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #77 (PHI)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #112 (#13 at his position); he went #77, 35 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 38 of ~80 possible regular-season games from 2005 through 2009 (~48%). Last NFL season: 2009.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Louisiana Tech: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.46 40-yard dash at 210 lbs: faster than 72% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 38 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 7 |
| Rushing | 204 att, 831 yds, 8 TD |
| Receiving | 20 rec, 127 yds, 1 TD |
| Defense | 14 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2009 |
The 2005 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2005 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 8", 210 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.46 s |
| Bench press | 19 reps |
| Vertical | 36" |
| Broad jump | 117" |
| 3-cone | 7.22 s |
| Shuttle | 4.1 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #112 overall (#13 RB) |
Picked around him 2005 redraft
| 74 | Justin Tuck | redraft #12 |
| 75 | Eric Green | redraft #108 |
| 76 | Karl Paymah | redraft #136 |
| 78 | Kirk Morrison | redraft #43 |
| 79 | Evan Mathis | redraft #33 |
| 80 | Dustin Fox | redraft #194 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.