Kirk Morrison
LB, San Diego St. · 2005 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #78 (OAK)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
LB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 112 of ~128 possible regular-season games from 2005 through 2012 (~88%). Last NFL season: 2012.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #146 (#7 at his position); he went #78, 68 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
San Diego St.: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.75 40-yard dash at 235 lbs: faster than 21% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 112 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 6 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 38 |
| Defense | 572 tackles, 6 sacks, 7 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2012 |
The 2005 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2005 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 235 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.75 s |
| Bench press | 25 reps |
| Shuttle | 4.31 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #146 overall (#7 LB) |
Picked around him 2005 redraft
| 75 | Eric Green | redraft #108 |
| 76 | Karl Paymah | redraft #136 |
| 77 | Ryan Moats | redraft #135 |
| 79 | Evan Mathis | redraft #33 |
| 80 | Dustin Fox | redraft #194 |
| 81 | Richie Incognito | redraft #15 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.