Ryan Kerrigan
DE, Purdue · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #16 (WAS)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 172 of ~177 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2021 (~97%). Last NFL season: 2021.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #17 (#5 at his position), close to where he went (#16).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Purdue: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.67 40-yard dash at 267 lbs: faster than 88% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DE (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 172 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 9 |
| Pro Bowls | 4 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 63 |
| Defense | 333 tackles, 95.5 sacks, 3 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2021 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 267 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.67 s |
| Bench press | 31 reps |
| Vertical | 33.5" |
| Broad jump | 122" |
| 3-cone | 7.18 s |
| Shuttle | 4.39 s |
| Arm / hand | 33.29" / 9.399" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #17 overall (#5 DE) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 13 | Nick Fairley | redraft #67 |
| 14 | Robert Quinn | redraft #15 |
| 15 | Mike Pouncey | redraft #27 |
| 17 | Nate Solder | redraft #19 |
| 18 | Corey Liuget | redraft #34 |
| 19 | Prince Amukamara | redraft #42 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.