Ryan Finley
QB, North Carolina St. · 2019 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #104 (CIN)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: age, position, availability. Details below.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 8 of ~32 possible regular-season games from 2019 through 2020 (~25%). Last NFL season: 2020.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #30 overall (#4 at his position), but he lasted until pick #104: teams let him slide 74 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
North Carolina St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.73 40-yard dash at 213 lbs: faster than 67% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 8 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 2 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 2.0 |
| Passing | 58/119, 638 yds, 3 TD, 4 INT |
| Rushing | 21 att, 143 yds, 1 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2020 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2019 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2019 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 213 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.73 s |
| Vertical | 30.5" |
| Broad jump | 116" |
| 3-cone | 7.2 s |
| Shuttle | 4.2 s |
| Arm / hand | 33.25" / 9.38" |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #30 overall (#4 QB) |
Picked around him 2019 redraft
| 101 | Yodny Cajuste | redraft #162 |
| 102 | Alexander Mattison | redraft #78 |
| 103 | Hakeem Butler | redraft #229 |
| 105 | C.J. Gardner-Johnson | redraft #56 |
| 106 | Maxx Crosby | redraft #4 |
| 107 | Anthony Nelson | redraft #89 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.