Anthony Nelson
DE, Iowa · 2019 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #107 (TAM)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 106 of ~117 possible regular-season games from 2019 through 2025 (~91%). Plus 7 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #101 (#10 at his position), close to where he went (#107). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Iowa: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.82 40-yard dash at 271 lbs: faster than 65% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DE (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 113 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 17 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 1 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 18.0 |
| Defense | 122 tackles, 22.5 sacks, 1 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2019 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2019 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 7", 271 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.82 s |
| Bench press | 18 reps |
| Vertical | 35.5" |
| Broad jump | 118" |
| 3-cone | 6.95 s |
| Shuttle | 4.23 s |
| Arm / hand | 34.88" / 9.88" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #101 overall (#10 DE) |
Picked around him 2019 redraft
| 104 | Ryan Finley | redraft #190 |
| 105 | C.J. Gardner-Johnson | redraft #56 |
| 106 | Maxx Crosby | redraft #4 |
| 108 | Julian Love | redraft #55 |
| 109 | Khari Willis | redraft #108 |
| 110 | Mitch Wishnowsky | redraft #119 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.