Russell Wilson
QB, Wisconsin · 2012 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #75 (SEA)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 205 of ~229 possible regular-season games from 2012 through 2025 (~90%).
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #104 (#8 at his position), close to where he went (#75). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Wisconsin: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.53 40-yard dash at 204 lbs: faster than 94% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 205 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 12 |
| Pro Bowls | 10 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 140 |
| Passing | 3951/6120, 46,966 yds, 353 TD, 114 INT |
| Rushing | 1042 att, 5,568 yds, 31 TD |
| Receiving | 5 rec, 21 yds, 1 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2025 |
The 2012 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2012 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 11", 204 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.53 s |
| Vertical | 34" |
| Broad jump | 118" |
| 3-cone | 6.97 s |
| Shuttle | 4.09 s |
| Arm / hand | 31" / 10.2" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #104 overall (#8 QB) |
Picked around him 2012 redraft
| 72 | Olivier Vernon | redraft #28 |
| 73 | Brandon Taylor | redraft #199 |
| 74 | Donald Stephenson | redraft #85 |
| 76 | Brandon Brooks | redraft #29 |
| 77 | Demario Davis | redraft #3 |
| 78 | Michael Egnew | redraft #207 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.