Olivier Vernon
LB, Miami (FL) · 2012 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #72 (MIA)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, position, availability. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
LB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 127 of ~144 possible regular-season games from 2012 through 2020 (~88%). Last NFL season: 2020.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #69 (#9 at his position), close to where he went (#72). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Miami (FL): a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.73 40-yard dash at 261 lbs: faster than 26% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 127 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 8 |
| Pro Bowls | 1 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 50 |
| Defense | 279 tackles, 63.5 sacks, 1 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2020 |
The 2012 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2012 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 261 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.73 s |
| Bench press | 31 reps |
| Vertical | 34.5" |
| Broad jump | 122" |
| 3-cone | 7.39 s |
| Shuttle | 4.5 s |
| Arm / hand | 33" / 10.1" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #69 overall (#9 LB) |
Picked around him 2012 redraft
| 69 | T.J. Graham | redraft #137 |
| 70 | Bryan Anger | redraft #69 |
| 71 | Josh LeRibeus | redraft #113 |
| 73 | Brandon Taylor | redraft #199 |
| 74 | Donald Stephenson | redraft #85 |
| 75 | Russell Wilson | redraft #1 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.