Roy Helu
RB, Nebraska · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #105 (WAS)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #170 (#18 at his position); he went #105, 65 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Nebraska: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.40 40-yard dash at 219 lbs: faster than 87% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 57 of ~80 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2015 (~71%). Last NFL season: 2015.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 57 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 13 |
| Rushing | 272 att, 1,171 yds, 7 TD |
| Receiving | 138 rec, 1,227 yds, 4 TD |
| Defense | 3 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2015 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 11", 219 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.40 s |
| Bench press | 11 reps |
| Vertical | 36.5" |
| Broad jump | 119" |
| 3-cone | 6.67 s |
| Shuttle | 4.01 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.29" / 10.2" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #170 overall (#18 RB) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 102 | Jordan Cameron | redraft #92 |
| 103 | Sam Acho | redraft #52 |
| 104 | Luke Stocker | redraft #138 |
| 106 | Christian Ballard | redraft #166 |
| 107 | Kris Durham | redraft #147 |
| 108 | Quinton Carter | redraft #132 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.