Luke Stocker
TE, Tennessee · 2011 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #104 (TAM)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position. Details below.
- Position
TE (TE group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 37.1% of the time (321 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #91 (#4 at his position), close to where he went (#104).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Tennessee: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.68 40-yard dash at 258 lbs: faster than 64% of TEs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 142 of ~177 possible regular-season games from 2011 through 2021 (~80%). Last NFL season: 2021.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 142 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 7 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 5 |
| Rushing | 1 att, 0 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 85 rec, 705 yds, 5 TD |
| Defense | 8 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2021 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position TE | 37.1% n=321 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 258 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.68 s |
| Bench press | 27 reps |
| Vertical | 33" |
| Broad jump | 115" |
| 3-cone | 7.03 s |
| Shuttle | 4.4 s |
| Arm / hand | 33" / 9.6" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #91 overall (#4 TE) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 101 | Clint Boling | redraft #31 |
| 102 | Jordan Cameron | redraft #92 |
| 103 | Sam Acho | redraft #52 |
| 105 | Roy Helu | redraft #90 |
| 106 | Christian Ballard | redraft #166 |
| 107 | Kris Durham | redraft #147 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.