Roman Harper
DB, Alabama · 2006 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #43 (NOR)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 156 of ~176 possible regular-season games from 2006 through 2016 (~89%). Last NFL season: 2016.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #108 (#10 at his position); he went #43, 65 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Alabama: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.50 40-yard dash at 198 lbs: faster than 42% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 156 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 8 |
| Pro Bowls | 2 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 49 |
| Defense | 641 tackles, 18 sacks, 11 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2016 |
The 2006 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2006 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 198 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.50 s |
| Bench press | 19 reps |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #108 overall (#10 DB) |
Picked around him 2006 redraft
| 40 | Daniel Bullocks | redraft #138 |
| 41 | Deuce Lutui | redraft #62 |
| 42 | Danieal Manning | redraft #61 |
| 44 | Sinorice Moss | redraft #163 |
| 45 | LenDale White | redraft #105 |
| 46 | Joe Klopfenstein | redraft #167 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.