Robert Herron
WR, Wyoming · 2014 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #185 (TAM)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 8 of ~16 possible regular-season games from 2014 through 2014 (~50%). Last NFL season: 2014.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #103 overall (#17 at his position), but he lasted until pick #185: teams let him slide 82 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Wyoming: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.48 40-yard dash at 193 lbs: faster than 44% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 8 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 0 |
| Rushing | 1 att, 0 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 6 rec, 58 yds, 1 TD |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2014 |
The 2014 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2014 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 9", 193 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.48 s |
| Bench press | 18 reps |
| Vertical | 35.5" |
| Broad jump | 125" |
| 3-cone | 6.84 s |
| Shuttle | 4.27 s |
| Arm / hand | 30.4" / 9.6" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #103 overall (#17 WR) |
Picked around him 2014 redraft
| 182 | Antone Exum | redraft #145 |
| 183 | David Fales | redraft #204 |
| 184 | Kendall James | redraft #236 |
| 186 | Lache Seastrunk | redraft #237 |
| 187 | Bennett Jackson | redraft #208 |
| 188 | E.J. Gaines | redraft #104 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.