David Fales
QB, San Jose St. · 2014 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #183 (CHI)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 5 of ~96 possible regular-season games from 2014 through 2019 (~5%). Last NFL season: 2019.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #121 overall (#8 at his position), but he lasted until pick #183: teams let him slide 62 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
San Jose St.: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.99 40-yard dash at 212 lbs: faster than 11% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 5 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 1 |
| Passing | 31/48, 287 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT |
| Rushing | 5 att, 8 yds, 1 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2019 |
The 2014 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2014 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 212 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.99 s |
| Vertical | 28" |
| Broad jump | 103" |
| 3-cone | 7.55 s |
| Shuttle | 4.5 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.6" / 9.2" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #121 overall (#8 QB) |
Picked around him 2014 redraft
| 180 | Kenneth Acker | redraft #126 |
| 181 | Alfred Blue | redraft #83 |
| 182 | Antone Exum | redraft #145 |
| 184 | Kendall James | redraft #236 |
| 185 | Robert Herron | redraft #212 |
| 186 | Lache Seastrunk | redraft #237 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.