Robert Griffin III
QB, Baylor · 2012 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #2 (WAS)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 56 of ~144 possible regular-season games from 2012 through 2020 (~39%). Last NFL season: 2020.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #2 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#2).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Baylor: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.33 40-yard dash at 223 lbs: faster than 99% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 56 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 3 |
| Pro Bowls | 1 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 36 |
| Passing | 799/1268, 9,271 yds, 43 TD, 30 INT |
| Rushing | 307 att, 1,809 yds, 10 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2020 |
The 2012 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2012 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 223 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.33 s |
| Vertical | 39" |
| Broad jump | 120" |
| Arm / hand | 32.2" / 9.4" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #2 overall (#2 QB) |
Picked around him 2012 redraft
| 1 | Andrew Luck | redraft #13 |
| 3 | Trent Richardson | redraft #91 |
| 4 | Matt Kalil | redraft #53 |
| 5 | Justin Blackmon | redraft #126 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.