Justin Blackmon
WR, Oklahoma St. · 2012 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #5 (JAX)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position. Details below.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #9 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#5).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Oklahoma St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.46 40-yard dash at 207 lbs: faster than 53% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 20 of ~32 possible regular-season games from 2012 through 2013 (~63%). Last NFL season: 2013.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 20 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 9 |
| Rushing | 3 att, 22 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 93 rec, 1,280 yds, 6 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2013 |
The 2012 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2012 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 207 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.46 s |
| Bench press | 14 reps |
| Arm / hand | 32.4" / 9.2" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #9 overall (#1 WR) |
Picked around him 2012 redraft
| 2 | Robert Griffin III | redraft #50 |
| 3 | Trent Richardson | redraft #91 |
| 4 | Matt Kalil | redraft #53 |
| 6 | Morris Claiborne | redraft #68 |
| 7 | Mark Barron | redraft #22 |
| 8 | Ryan Tannehill | redraft #8 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.