Robert Beal
OLB, Georgia · 2023 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #173 (SFO)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, age, availability. Details below.
The 2023 class is only 3 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #214 (#22 at his position); he went #173, 41 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 25 of ~51 possible regular-season games from 2023 through 2025 (~49%). Plus 2 games so far in 2026.
- School
Georgia: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.48 40-yard dash at 247 lbs: faster than 95% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
OLB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 27 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 2 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 0.3 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 2.3 |
| Defense | 17 tackles, 1 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2023 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2023 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 247 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.48 s |
| Vertical | 30" |
| Broad jump | 123" |
| Arm / hand | 34.63" / 10.13" |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #214 overall (#22 OLB) |
Picked around him 2023 redraft
| 170 | Christopher Smith | redraft #164 |
| 171 | Payne Durham | redraft #161 |
| 172 | Eric Gray | redraft #201 |
| 174 | Warren McClendon | redraft #73 |
| 175 | Davis Allen | redraft #144 |
| 176 | Evan Hull | redraft #235 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.