Rob Gronkowski
TE, Arizona · 2010 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #42 (NWE)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #49 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#42). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Arizona: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.68 40-yard dash at 264 lbs: faster than 64% of TEs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
TE (TE group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 37.1% of the time (321 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 143 of ~193 possible regular-season games from 2010 through 2021 (~74%). Last NFL season: 2021.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 143 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 11 |
| Pro Bowls | 5 |
| First-team All-Pro | 4 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 78 |
| Rushing | 1 att, 2 yds, 1 TD |
| Receiving | 621 rec, 9,286 yds, 92 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2021 |
The 2010 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2010 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position TE | 37.1% n=321 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 6", 264 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.68 s |
| Bench press | 23 reps |
| Arm / hand | 34.3" / 10.8" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #49 overall (#2 TE) |
Picked around him 2010 redraft
| 39 | Arrelious Benn | redraft #131 |
| 40 | Koa Misi | redraft #55 |
| 41 | Torell Troup | redraft #173 |
| 43 | Sergio Kindle | redraft #227 |
| 44 | Lamarr Houston | redraft #54 |
| 45 | Zane Beadles | redraft #28 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.