Quez Watkins
WR, Southern Miss · 2020 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #200 (PHI)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, age. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #136 overall (#23 at his position), but he lasted until pick #200: teams let him slide 64 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Southern Miss: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.35 40-yard dash at 185 lbs: faster than 89% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 49 of ~67 possible regular-season games from 2020 through 2023 (~73%). Last NFL season: 2023.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 49 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 13 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 13.0 |
| Rushing | 4 att, 4 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 98 rec, 1,249 yds, 6 TD |
| Defense | 4 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2023 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2020 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2020 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 185 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.35 s |
| Vertical | 36.5" |
| Broad jump | 125" |
| 3-cone | 7.28 s |
| Shuttle | 4.36 s |
| Arm / hand | 32.88" / 9" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #136 overall (#23 WR) |
Picked around him 2020 redraft
| 197 | John Penisini | redraft #144 |
| 198 | Antoine Brooks Jr. | redraft #224 |
| 199 | Jordan Fuller | redraft #84 |
| 201 | James Proche | redraft #171 |
| 202 | Evan Weaver | redraft #250 |
| 203 | Blake Brandel | redraft #86 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.