John Penisini
DT, Utah · 2020 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #197 (DET)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 32 of ~33 possible regular-season games from 2020 through 2021 (~97%). Last NFL season: 2021.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #215 (#17 at his position), close to where he went (#197). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Utah: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Combine
Invited to the Combine but no 40 time on record (skipped or injured).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (4,704 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DT (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 32 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 6 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 6.0 |
| Defense | 23 tackles, 1 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2021 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2020 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2020 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Combine Invited to the Combine | 50.6% n=4,704 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 318 lbs |
| Bench press | 23 reps |
| Vertical | 25.5" |
| Shuttle | 4.93 s |
| Arm / hand | 32.88" / 10.13" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #215 overall (#17 DT) |
Picked around him 2020 redraft
| 194 | Khalil Davis | redraft #189 |
| 195 | Justin Herron | redraft #141 |
| 196 | Shaun Bradley | redraft #176 |
| 198 | Antoine Brooks Jr. | redraft #224 |
| 199 | Jordan Fuller | redraft #84 |
| 200 | Quez Watkins | redraft #103 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.