Prescott Burgess
LB, Michigan · 2007 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #207 (BAL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: position. Details below.
- Position
LB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #193 (#17 at his position), close to where he went (#207).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Michigan: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.82 40-yard dash at 240 lbs: faster than 9% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 40 of ~80 possible regular-season games from 2007 through 2011 (~50%). Last NFL season: 2011.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 40 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 2 |
| Defense | 32 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2011 |
The 2007 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2007 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 240 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.82 s |
| Bench press | 19 reps |
| Vertical | 32.5" |
| Broad jump | 106" |
| 3-cone | 7.01 s |
| Shuttle | 4.31 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #193 overall (#17 LB) |
Picked around him 2007 redraft
| 204 | Jacob Ford | redraft #132 |
| 205 | Jordan Palmer | redraft #217 |
| 206 | Ryan Smith | redraft #242 |
| 208 | Justise Hairston | redraft #243 |
| 209 | Corey Hilliard | redraft #124 |
| 210 | Jordan Kent | redraft #207 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.