Jordan Palmer
QB, Texas-El Paso · 2007 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #205 (WAS)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 5 of ~128 possible regular-season games from 2007 through 2014 (~4%). Last NFL season: 2014.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #219 (#12 at his position), close to where he went (#205).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Texas-El Paso: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.98 40-yard dash at 231 lbs: faster than 11% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 5 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 0 |
| Passing | 11/18, 66 yds, undefined TD, 2 INT |
| Rushing | 2 att, 3 yds, undefined TD |
| Last NFL season | 2014 |
The 2007 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2007 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 6", 231 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.98 s |
| Vertical | 30.5" |
| Broad jump | 104" |
| 3-cone | 7.32 s |
| Shuttle | 4.58 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #219 overall (#12 QB) |
Picked around him 2007 redraft
| 202 | Mike Richardson | redraft #179 |
| 203 | Daren Stone | redraft #182 |
| 204 | Jacob Ford | redraft #132 |
| 206 | Ryan Smith | redraft #242 |
| 207 | Prescott Burgess | redraft #168 |
| 208 | Justise Hairston | redraft #243 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.