Patrick Paul
OL, Houston · 2024 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #55 (MIA)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, position, availability. Details below.
The 2024 class is only 2 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
OL (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 33 of ~34 possible regular-season games from 2024 through 2025 (~97%). Plus 6 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #132 (#18 at his position); he went #55, 77 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Houston: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.13 40-yard dash at 331 lbs: faster than 70% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 39 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 10 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 2.7 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 12.7 |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2024 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2024 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 8", 331 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.13 s |
| Vertical | 29" |
| 3-cone | 7.65 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #132 overall (#18 OL) |
Picked around him 2024 redraft
| 52 | Adonai Mitchell | redraft #70 |
| 53 | Ben Sinnott | redraft #157 |
| 54 | Michael Hall | redraft #129 |
| 56 | Marshawn Kneeland | redraft #164 |
| 57 | Chris Braswell | redraft #159 |
| 58 | Javon Bullard | redraft #65 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.