Pat Elflein
C, Ohio St. · 2017 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #70 (MIN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: position. Details below.
- Position
C (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #76 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#70).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Ohio St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.32 40-yard dash at 303 lbs: faster than 24% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 65 of ~98 possible regular-season games from 2017 through 2022 (~66%). Last NFL season: 2022.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 65 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 3 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 26 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 26.0 |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2022 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2017 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2017 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 303 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.32 s |
| Bench press | 22 reps |
| Vertical | 23.5" |
| Broad jump | 99" |
| 3-cone | 7.94 s |
| Shuttle | 4.71 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #76 overall (#1 C) |
Picked around him 2017 redraft
| 67 | Alvin Kamara | redraft #5 |
| 68 | Dawuane Smoot | redraft #99 |
| 69 | Cooper Kupp | redraft #9 |
| 71 | Dan Feeney | redraft #46 |
| 72 | Taywan Taylor | redraft #148 |
| 73 | Jordan Willis | redraft #138 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.