Alvin Kamara
RB, Tennessee · 2017 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #67 (NOR)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #40 (#4 at his position), close to where he went (#67). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Tennessee: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.56 40-yard dash at 214 lbs: faster than 41% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 125 of ~149 possible regular-season games from 2017 through 2025 (~84%). Plus 6 games so far in 2026.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 131 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 7 |
| Pro Bowls | 5 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 79 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 0.9 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 79.9 |
| Passing | 1/1, 13 yds, undefined TD, undefined INT |
| Rushing | 1709 att, 7,370 yds, 63 TD |
| Receiving | 621 rec, 5,024 yds, 26 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2017 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2017 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 10", 214 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.56 s |
| Bench press | 15 reps |
| Vertical | 39.5" |
| Broad jump | 131" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #40 overall (#4 RB) |
Picked around him 2017 redraft
| 64 | Taylor Moton | redraft #26 |
| 65 | Larry Ogunjobi | redraft #32 |
| 66 | Ahkello Witherspoon | redraft #83 |
| 68 | Dawuane Smoot | redraft #99 |
| 69 | Cooper Kupp | redraft #9 |
| 70 | Pat Elflein | redraft #73 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.