Orlando Brown Jr.
T, Oklahoma · 2018 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #83 (BAL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, position, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
T (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 125 of ~133 possible regular-season games from 2018 through 2025 (~94%). Plus 6 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #76 (#6 at his position), close to where he went (#83). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Oklahoma: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.85 40-yard dash at 345 lbs: faster than 0% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 131 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 8 |
| Pro Bowls | 4 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 69 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 2.8 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 71.8 |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2018 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2018 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 8", 345 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.85 s |
| Bench press | 14 reps |
| Vertical | 19.5" |
| Broad jump | 82" |
| 3-cone | 7.87 s |
| Shuttle | 5.38 s |
| Arm / hand | 35" / 9.75" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #76 overall (#6 T) |
Picked around him 2018 redraft
| 80 | Martinas Rankin | redraft #162 |
| 81 | Michael Gallup | redraft #63 |
| 82 | Tracy Walker | redraft #120 |
| 84 | Justin Jones | redraft #65 |
| 85 | Rashaan Gaulden | redraft #209 |
| 86 | Mark Andrews | redraft #17 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.