Nigel Bradham
LB, Florida St. · 2012 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #105 (BUF)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: position. Details below.
- Position
LB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #120 (#7 at his position), close to where he went (#105). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Florida St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.56 40-yard dash at 241 lbs: faster than 80% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 116 of ~144 possible regular-season games from 2012 through 2020 (~81%). Last NFL season: 2020.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 116 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 7 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 44 |
| Defense | 403 tackles, 8.5 sacks, 3 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2020 |
The 2012 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2012 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 241 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.56 s |
| Bench press | 24 reps |
| Vertical | 37" |
| Broad jump | 121" |
| 3-cone | 7.18 s |
| Shuttle | 4.37 s |
| Arm / hand | 33.6" / 10.4" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #120 overall (#7 LB) |
Picked around him 2012 redraft
| 102 | Kirk Cousins | redraft #4 |
| 103 | Frank Alexander | redraft #143 |
| 104 | Joe Adams | redraft #209 |
| 106 | Robert Turbin | redraft #94 |
| 107 | Devon Wylie | redraft #212 |
| 108 | Philip Blake | redraft #232 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.