Kirk Cousins
QB, Michigan St. · 2012 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #102 (WAS)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #57 overall (#7 at his position), but he lasted until pick #102: teams let him slide 45 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Michigan St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.84 40-yard dash at 214 lbs: faster than 38% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 180 of ~229 possible regular-season games from 2012 through 2025 (career total from PFR, which may already include some 2026 games) (~79%).
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 180 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 9 |
| Pro Bowls | 4 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 102 |
| Passing | 4069/6112, 46,282 yds, 312 TD, 136 INT |
| Rushing | 353 att, 963 yds, 20 TD |
| Receiving | 1 rec, -1 yds, undefined TD |
| Defense | 1 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
The 2012 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2012 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 214 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.84 s |
| Vertical | 28.5" |
| Broad jump | 109" |
| 3-cone | 7.05 s |
| Shuttle | 4.5 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.6" / 9.7" |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #57 overall (#7 QB) |
Picked around him 2012 redraft
| 99 | Ben Jones | redraft #21 |
| 100 | Travis Benjamin | redraft #67 |
| 101 | Omar Bolden | redraft #148 |
| 103 | Frank Alexander | redraft #143 |
| 104 | Joe Adams | redraft #209 |
| 105 | Nigel Bradham | redraft #39 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.