Nick Vigil
ILB, Utah St. · 2016 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #87 (CIN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: position. Details below.
- Position
ILB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #176 (#8 at his position); he went #87, 89 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Utah St.: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.72 40-yard dash at 239 lbs: faster than 28% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 113 of ~148 possible regular-season games from 2016 through 2024 (~76%). Last NFL season: 2024.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 113 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 4 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 27 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 27.0 |
| Defense | 273 tackles, 5 sacks, 3 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2024 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2016 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2016 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 239 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.72 s |
| Vertical | 31.5" |
| Broad jump | 115" |
| 3-cone | 6.73 s |
| Shuttle | 4 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #176 overall (#8 ILB) |
Picked around him 2016 redraft
| 84 | Kendall Fuller | redraft #51 |
| 85 | Braxton Miller | redraft #182 |
| 86 | Leonte Carroo | redraft #180 |
| 88 | Kyler Fackrell | redraft #98 |
| 89 | Javon Hargrave | redraft #20 |
| 90 | C.J. Prosise | redraft #154 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.