Nick Bolton
LB, Missouri · 2021 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #58 (KAN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, position, availability. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
LB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 73 of ~85 possible regular-season games from 2021 through 2025 (~86%). Plus 6 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #40 (#4 at his position), close to where he went (#58). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Missouri: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.60 40-yard dash at 237 lbs: faster than 67% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 79 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 4 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 30 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 2.7 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 32.7 |
| Defense | 385 tackles, 6 sacks, 5 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2021 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2021 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 11", 237 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.60 s |
| Bench press | 24 reps |
| Vertical | 32" |
| 3-cone | 7.4 s |
| Shuttle | 4.5 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.88" / 10.38" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #40 overall (#4 LB) |
Picked around him 2021 redraft
| 55 | Pat Freiermuth | redraft #48 |
| 56 | D'Wayne Eskridge | redraft #168 |
| 57 | Tutu Atwell | redraft #86 |
| 59 | Terrace Marshall Jr. | redraft #140 |
| 60 | Pete Werner | redraft #26 |
| 61 | Boogie Basham | redraft #159 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.